- California has 19 million more registered Democrats than Republicans
- On October 1st Boxer had a 5 to 1 advantage in cash on hand
- The governor's race is going to go to the Democrat, Brown, by a huge margin and Boxer will ride his coattails with some voters
- Proposition 23, a clean air issue, is winning by a substantial margin and Boxer chairs the Environment and Public Works Committee in the Senate
- Fiorina's image of a failed CEO of HP
- Boxer had no opposition in her primary, Fiorina's win gobbled up a large part of her cash on hand
- President Obama is still popular in California
Among the negatives:
- The anti-incumbent aura across the nation
- Boxer is a career politician
- Unemployment is at 12% and doesn't look like it's coming down anytime soon
- Boxer was unable to shine during the debates, the last two gave Fiorina a slight advantage
Taking all this into account and noting that the polls have shown her ahead, although never enough to make it less than a statistical dead heat, Boxer should win her fourth term as Senator from California. I predict she will receive 48% of the vote to 44% for Fiorina. The remaining votes will be split among the four other candidates on the ballot although I don't believe any of them will get over 5%.
