Let the Air Wars Begin

Both Boxer and Fiorina have unleashed attack ads this past week. Negative ads by the candidates, let alone by interest groups, have outpaced issue ads by two to one in the contest. I hate watching but obviously negative ads work.  How do I know they work?  Because there are so many of them. Why are there so many of them?  Because they work.  Campaigns have a limited amount of money to spend on ads.  If negative ads didn't work, they wouldn't be aired.  Campaigns would use their money in different types of ads.  This year, with the Supreme Court decision which unleashed corporate and union cash with no restraint, we have seen more negative ads than ever before.  Hopefully this will be fixed in the next Congress.  But don't hold your breath.

Money Makes the Election Go Round

Meg Whitman, Republican candidate for governor of California, recently invested another $15 million of her own money into her campaign.  She has thus set the record for self financing of any political race--a total to date of $119 MILLION!!!!!  "And what does this have to do with the Boxer-Fiorina contest?" you may ask.  That much money buying that much exposure for a Republican candidate, no matter what she's running for, is bound to create more interest among the Republicans in California and also more votes for all Republicans running for any position in California.

A plus for Fiorina in her quest to become your next Senator from California.

Prop 23--So Californian

On November 2, California voters will vote on Proposition 23, a measure that, if passed, would roll back the state's landmark global warming law.  California's 2006 law will cut green house emissions to 1990 levels over the next decade.

Boxer argues that Prop 23 would cause California to lose its edge in wind and solar industries to other nations.

Fiorina argues that the global warming law will cost jobs in the short run.

California voters are different from the rest of us.  More environmentally conscious and more willing to look at the long term as opposed to the short term, this difference in viewpoints definitely favors Boxer.  Look for the equivocation to harm Fiorina at the polls.

L.A. Times news story on Prop 223

Just the Facts, Ma'am

The Public Policy Institute of California has released a fact sheet on likely voters in the next California election and it has some good news for the Democrats. See the full fact sheet here.

The number of registered voters as compared to 2006 has increased for both Democrats and Independents but has decreased for Republicans.

• Democrats increased from 6.7 million to 7.6 million
• Independents increased from 3.0 million to 3.4 million
• Republicans decreased from 5.4 million to 5.2 million

Even more impressive, the likely voters in the next election will be composed of:

• 44% Democrats
• 35% Republicans
• 18% Independents
• 3% Other

The outlook seems much better for the Democrats than previously reported.

Generic Survey Gives Democrats a Headache

Another respected prognosticator has predicted that the Republicans will gain control of the House.  Larry Sabato joins Mark Halperin and Charlie Cook in predicting that outcome in the November elections.  In addition to deepening the gloom surrounding the Democrats just two months before the elections, these predictions will certainly result in a hesitancy on the part of donors to throw their money at a lost cause.  Look for more and more corporate cash to flow into the Republican coffers, cash that two years ago went to the Democrats.

And the Winner Is----

The consensus winner of the debate from the newspapers I reviewed was---drumroll---Barbara Boxer.

A sampling of the comments:

LA Times--Boxer kept her opponent on the defensive
SF Chronicle--Boxer pounced (on) Fiorina
Sacramento Bee--(The debate) was pretty much a draw until the closing statements when ...Boxer hit her stride with an emotional declaration of the differences between the two.

Pretty much supports my conclusion from last night.

The Debate

If this debate was about numbers, poll numbers, unemployment numbers, etc., Carly proved that you can get numbers to show anything you want--most of Bush's tax cuts went to middle class America?????  But Barbara had the most damning numbers--the $21 million parachute Carly got when she was fired as CEO of HP!!!!!!

The Senator clearly won this debate using both facts and passion.  The CEO was a bit of a damp dishrag.

Tonight's Debate

The debate tonight will be the first in a race which polls show to be a toss up.  They will meet at St. Mary's College in Moraga, just east of Oakland, at 7:00. We can expect job creation to be a big topic since California's unemployment rate of 12% is even greater than the national average.  You can catch the debate on Southern California Public Radio, KPCC, at their web site.   http://www.scpr.org/news/2010/09/01/boxer-fiorina-debate-tonight/